Causal thinking in design and everyday decision making

Can have a better understanding of causal thinking help to design better experiences? Probably, and if you are a designer, you are most of the times considering how people understand causes and effects, to align with cognitive and emotional needs. So next time you ask yourself ‘why?’ when something happens, pay attention: it is a natural superpower that we all have, to connect causes with effects so that we can better navigate this complex world.

Our brains naturally create causal models, mental maps that connect causes with their effects. These models are practical tools we use daily to make decisions, predict outcomes, and form relationships with other people.

Think about how you interact with everyday objects. When you press a button on your coffee machine, you expect a specific result because you’ve built a mental model of how it works. Intuitive design matches these expectations, making devices easy to use. When something doesn’t work as expected, we immediately try to work out why, asking ourselves ‘is it because the plug is not in?’. We then proceed to imagine a series of ‘what ifs’ scenarios.

Judea Pearl, amongst others, suggests that we think about causation in three increasingly sophisticated ways. First, we observe patterns or associations (noticing that people who buy dental floss often buy toothpaste too). Second, we intervene to test hypotheses (what happens if we change something?). Finally, we imagine scenarios that never actually happened. This counterfactual thinking represents our most advanced causal reasoning. It allows us to imagine alternatives to reality, learning from experiences we’ve never had and prepare for situations we’ve never faced.

When we ask, ‘What would have happened if I’d taken that job?’ or when we design an experience for a group of people, we’re engaging in this sophisticated form of thinking.



This has some limitations: causal thinking tend to focus on direct, immediate causes while overlooking systemic factors. We sometimes miss how effects can influence causes in cyclical relationships. Our thinking is also influenced by context, framing, and our existing knowledge. Understanding these tendencies can help us make better decisions. For example, when solving problems, we might need to look beyond the obvious causes to see the bigger picture. When communicating with others, recognising that they too are building causal stories can help us present information more effectively.

Next time you find yourself asking ‘why?’ remember that you’re engaging in a fundamental aspect of human cognition. Your brain is building causal models, running mental simulations, and connecting dots to make sense of the world, hopefully for the better.

This ability helps us navigate complexity, learn from experience, and imagine a multitude of possibilities.